Research

Job Market Paper

Informed Climate Adaptation: Input and Output Subsidies for Shaded Cocoa

with Jiayue Zhang 

Funded by: IGC, IGC, Research Grants at Brown (Bravo Center, IBES, PSTC)

Coverage: [PEDL Summary], [IGC Blog

Presented: CASE Conference 2025*, All-IGC Meeting, AERE Summer 2024, EPG 2024, ISSER University of Ghana

Abstract: With growing climate risks, agro-environmental policies seek to protect the environment while reducing poverty by incentivizing climate adaptation. We study how information shapes adaptation under different subsidy schemes for cocoa farmers in Ghana, where forest tree planting for shade is encouraged as an adaptation strategy. Conducting a lab-in-the-field experiment, we compare the impacts of an information intervention under an input subsidy for planting forest trees and an output subsidy for producing cocoa beans from shaded farms. While farmers receiving the information in both subsidy groups plant more forest trees than their subsidy-only counterparts, the increase is higher under the output subsidy than the input subsidy even though the information leads both groups to similarly update their beliefs about the benefits of shade. We rationalize the differential effects of information with a model in which beliefs about rainfall uncertainty and shade benefits affect ex ante input decisions. Counterfactuals show that output subsidy has greater potential to drive adaptation than input when beliefs are reasonably correct. We validate the lab results by distributing tree seedlings, finding consistent treatment effects on the number of seedlings requested and obtained.

Working Papers

Credit Constraint and Green Energy Adoption: Evidence from Small Firms in Kenya  [Draft coming soon

with Wycliffe Oluoch and Jiayue Zhang

Funded by: PEDL, Research Grants at Brown (Bravo Center, PSTC), SurveyCTO Data Collection Grant

Coverage: [PEDL Summary]

Abstract: The adoption of green technology in developing countries is essential for sustainable development. However, willingness-to-pay (WTP) for green technology remains low in many of these regions. Traditional WTP assessments do not adequately capture the complexities of credit-based purchases, where payments are distributed over time and agents are time-inconsistent and credit-constrained. This study outlines a novel theoretical framework to evaluate WTP for credit-based purchases in Kenya, focusing on an affordable clean energy solution - portable solar lamps. Utilizing the Bayesian Adaptive Choice Experiment (BACE), this study evaluates small business owners' WTP for credit-based purchases of solar lamps by varying down payment and repayment amounts. Exploiting a randomized controlled trial (RCT) that offers owners a traditional subsidy on the down payment or a proposed tailored subsidy where an equivalent amount of subsidy is applied on the down payment or the repayment,  this study examines the impact on small business owners' adoption and business performances. By understanding how small business owners value credit purchases, we can better design and implement green technology initiatives and subsidy policies targeting similar clean-energy products to promote sustainable energy transitions in the developing world.

Local Favoritism and Environmental Regulation: Evidence from China [Working Paper]

with Xiaowei Zhang and Tiemeng Ma

Award: [EPG 2024 Best Poster Award]

Presented: EPG 2024 (poster), International Conference on Development Economics 2023 (PSE)

Abstract: Local politicians are essential in allocating public resources and managing regional economic activities, particularly within decentralized systems. Existing studies have extensively documented evidence of hometown favoritism influencing investment activities and the distribution of public goods. However, there is scant evidence regarding the influence of local favoritism on the allocating public bads. This paper investigates the impact of local regulators' hometown favoritism on pollution regulation, firm pollution responses, and performance in China's water pollution context. We use georeferenced data on polluting firms, matching them to prefectural city boundaries and river networks. Leveraging the hometown link variation across bordering areas within the same jurisdiction city caused by exogenous prefectural city leader turnover, we examine the differences in pollution response and performance between firms located upstream of local leaders' hometowns and those located upstream of non-hometown areas. We further consider the heterogeneity in local regulators' incentives and firm size.

Illustration of geographic variation

Abstract: This paper examines how the new round of Land Certification Reform (LCR) in rural China that formalizes land use rights affects farmers’ rental market participation as well as their intra-household decisions about living arrangements and eldercare.  Exploiting the village-level staggered implementation, I find that this reform increases the likelihood of farmers renting out their land and therefore leads to a higher income. Also, elderly parents are less likely to coreside with and receive companionship from their children, especially sons, after the reform; this is mainly driven by landed households. Moreover, households subject to this reform are more likely to receive transfers from children and there is an overall positive impact on the net amount of transfers. I find no evidence that this reform affects the mental health of elderly parents.

Rollout of Land Certification Program

Selected Work in Progress

"Information Nudge on Social and Private Benefit, and Impact on Adaptation", with Ming Li, Jia Xiang, and Jiayue Zhang.

[AEA Registry] [Data collection completed] 

Research question: Does information about public benefit and private benefit change farmers' behavior differently?

"Climate Adaptation and Cocoa Production Dynamics", with Ruozi Song and Jiayue Zhang.

[Data digitization ongoing] [Proposal submitted]

Abstract: Can climate adaptation go beyond production input adjustments? This paper examines an overlooked channel of adaptation, post-production trading, in the context of cocoa farmers in Ghana. Leveraging digitized trading records of cocoa farmers and geospatial information, we examine the impacts of climate shocks at different stages of the production cycle on cocoa farmers' welfare, and how farmers can adapt to these shocks post-harvest, specially through trading. 

"Solar Adoption and Beliefs: Evidence from Cocoa Farmers in Ghana", with Jiayue Zhang.

Funded by: IGC

Abstract: Climate and environmental subsidy effectiveness depends on the distribution of beliefs within a target population. However, belief update for one technology may spill over to another technology. We conduct a randomized trial on small-scale solar subsidies to examine sustainable energy adoption in the context of heterogeneous adaptation beliefs. Leveraging a prior intervention that shifted adaptation beliefs among cocoa farmers, we structurally estimate the spillover effect across green technologies. We then assess the effectiveness of subsidy policies on solar adoption and quantify its impacts on cocoa farmers' labor, school-age children’s time use, and adoption of other climate-smart technologies.  Our findings contribute to the literature on optimal subsidy design for promoting sustainable technology adoption in climate-vulnerable communities.

"Local Knowledge or Misallocation: Efficiency Costs of Discretion in Regulatory Enforcement”, with Ruozi Song and Bing Zhang.

Funded by: World Bank